Deloitte expects Canadian real GDP to grow 0.9% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027, according to Wealth Professional’s October 1 report on the firm’s fall economic outlook. The forecasts represent an increase of 0.2 percentage points for this year and a reduction of 0.4 percentage points for next year.
The lower 2027 figure revises an earlier projection of 2.0% growth. It does not mean economic output is expected to shrink by 20%. These are forecasts rather than measured results.
Deloitte’s September 29 overview, authored by chief economist Dawn Desjardins, says uncertainty over U.S. trade policy is delaying business expansion. It identifies public investment, fewer interprovincial trade barriers and investment incentives as possible sources of support.
The forecast has limits: Wealth Professional reports that Deloitte excluded the tariff expansion announced September 15 and the U.S. restrictions on certain Canadian goods that took effect September 29. Subsequent developments could change the outlook.
