RBC Economics, in its Forward Guidance dated Oct. 2, 2026, forecasts a 5,000 increase in Canadian employment for September and expects the unemployment rate to remain at 6.4%. The bank’s note from Claire Fan and Annie Zheng frames these figures as forecasts made before Statistics Canada’s labour release scheduled for Friday, Oct. 9.
The authors describe September as the first full month after U.S. Section 338 tariffs took effect on Aug. 22 and say any impacts are likely to be localized in exposed industries and provinces. RBC also notes possible mitigating factors: exporters finding alternative buyers and some firms accessing government support.
RBC cautions that headline employment totals can be volatile and affected by demographic estimates, and states a preference for the unemployment rate as a more stable gauge. The Oct. 2 outlook also reiterates the bank’s forecast that the unemployment rate will be 6.3% by year end.
